Trade Policy as Geoeconomic Statecraft: Regulatory Positioning in Vietnam’s Rare Earth Supply Chains
English
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61194/ijss.v7i4.2799Keywords:
geoeconomics, rare earth elements, trade policy, strategic positioning, supply-chain securityAbstract
Vietnam combines substantial reported rare earth element (REE) reserves with limited extraction and processing capacity and rising domestic demand, a configuration that makes resource-based geopolitical leverage uncertain. Existing Vietnam-focused studies describe resource potential, demand, legal reform, and external partnerships, but do not compare the evidentiary support for multiple geoeconomic instruments while explicitly separating regulatory action from demonstrated strategic effects. This study asks which of Blackwill and Harris’s seven geoeconomic instruments are traceable in a purposively constructed documentary corpus on Vietnam’s REE sector during 2018–2025 and what strategic outcomes that corpus can support. Using a qualitative single-case documentary design, it applies directed content analysis to 18 official policy, bilateral, statistical, institutional, academic, and contextual sources selected for direct relevance to state action or supply-chain outcomes and cross-checked across source types. Within this corpus, trade policy receives the strongest evidentiary support through export-eligibility rules, processing requirements, and domestic-priority provisions. Reciprocal trade agreements provide an enabling market-access framework, but no REE-specific concession deliberately deployed to elicit a geopolitical response was identified. Japan-centred trade and the 2024 formal inclusion of REEs in Vietnam–Japan critical-mineral cooperation provide externally observable evidence of continued market access and institutional recognition. However, the available pre-2021 baseline does not establish that these external options or Vietnam’s institutional standing measurably improved because of the subsequent regulatory measures. The evidence therefore supports a bounded interpretation of regulatory positioning rather than a demonstrated positional gain, and it does not show coercive leverage, partner behavioural change, or political concessions.
References
Aggarwal, V. K., & Reddie, A. W. (2025). New Economic Statecraft and Global Technology Conflicts: The Dilemma for Middle Powers. Business and Politics, 27(4), 465–483. https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2025.10011
Balaram, V. (2019). Rare Earth Elements: A Review of Applications, Occurrence, Exploration, Analysis, Recycling, and Environmental Impact. Geoscience Frontiers, 10(4), 1285–1303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2018.12.005
Bazilian, M., Bradshaw, M., Gabriel, J., Goldthau, A., & Westphal, K. (2020). Four Scenarios of the Energy Transition: Drivers, Consequences, and Implications for Geopolitics. WIREs Climate Change, 11(2), e625. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.625
Bazilian, M. D. (2018). The Mineral Foundation of the Energy Transition. The Extractive Industries and Society, 5(1), 93–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2017.12.002
Blackwill, R. D., & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft. Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674545960
Blondeel, M., Bradshaw, M. J., Bridge, G., & Kuzemko, C. (2021). The Geopolitics of Energy System Transformation: A Review. Geography Compass, 15(7), e12580. https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12580
Bowen, G. A. (2009). Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9(2), 27–40. https://doi.org/10.3316/QRJ0902027
Depraiter, L., Goutte, S., & Porcher, T. (2025). Geopolitical Risk and the Global Supply of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets: Insights from China’s Export Trends. Energy Economics, 146, 108496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108496
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351
Ge, J., & Lei, Y. (2018). Resource Tax on Rare Earths in China: Policy Evolution and Market Responses. Resources Policy, 59, 291–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.07.016
Glencross, A. (2024). The Geopolitics of Supply Chains: EU Efforts to Ensure Security of Supply. Global Policy, 15(4), 729–739. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13388
Government of Vietnam. (2010). VN, Japan to Open Rare Earth and Nuclear Energy Cooperation.
Hsieh, H.-F., & Shannon, S. E. (2005). Three Approaches to Qualitative Content Analysis. Qualitative Health Research, 15(9), 1277–1288. https://doi.org/10.1177/1049732305276687
Huy, P. Q., Sweetnam, G. E., & Hien, T. T. (2024). Shifting toward Clean Energy Technology: Assessing Vietnam Critical Minerals Demand and Domestic Resources. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1395(1), 12001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1395/1/012001
Ilankoon, I. M. S. K., Dushyantha, N. P., Mancheri, N., Edirisinghe, P. M., Neethling, S. J., Ratnayake, N. P., Rohitha, L. P. S., Dissanayake, D. M. D. O. K., Premasiri, H. M. R., Abeysinghe, A. M. K. B., Dharmaratne, P. G. R., & Batapola, N. M. (2022). Constraints to Rare Earth Elements Supply Diversification: Evidence from an Industry Survey. Journal of Cleaner Production, 331, 129932. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129932
International Energy Agency. (2025). Rare Earth Elements 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/rare-earth-elements-2025
Japan Customs. (2025). Japan-Vietnam EPA (2025.04)
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (2007). Japan and Vietnam Begin Joint Basic Survey for Copper and Rare-Earth Resource Development.
Mancheri, N. A., Sprecher, B., Bailey, G., Ge, J., & Tukker, A. (2019). Effect of Chinese Policies on Rare Earth Supply Chain Resilience. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 142, 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.11.017
Mariev, O., & Blueschke, D. (2025). Interplay of Chinese Rare Earth Elements Supply and European Clean Energy Transition: A Geopolitical Context Analysis. Renewable Energy, 238, 121986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121986
Miles, M. B., Huberman, A. M., & Saldaña, J. (2014). Qualitative Data Analysis: A Methods Sourcebook (3rd ed.). SAGE Publications.
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, & General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. (2025). Announcement No. 18 of 2025: Decision to Implement Export Control on Some Medium and Heavy Rare Earth Related Items.
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. (2024). Seventh Meeting of the Japan-Viet Nam Joint Committee on Cooperation in Industry, Trade and Energy Held.
Ministry of Finance of Japan. (2026). 2025 Country by Commodity (Import Jan-Dec: Revised) (103-158: Asia).
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, T. (2012). Circular No. 41/2012/TT-BCT on Mineral Exports.
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, T. (2016). Circular No. 12/2016/TT-BCT Amending Circular No. 41/2012/TT-BCT on Mineral Exports.
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, T. (2018). National Assembly Ratifies CPTPP.
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, T. (2020). Circular No. 13/2020/TT-BCT Amending and Repealing Certain Business-Investment Conditions under the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, T. (2021). Circular No. 23/2021/TT-BCT on the List of Categories and Quality Standards for Exported Minerals under the Management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, T. (2023). Circular No. 45/2023/TT-BCT Amending and Supplementing Circular No. 23/2021/TT-BCT on the List of Categories and Quality Standards for Exported Minerals under the Management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Nesadurai, H. E. S. (2026). Malaysia’s Ambivalent Middle Power Status: A Global South Perspective from a Reconceptualised Geoeconomics. Global Policy, 17(S1), S65–S74. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70072
Ostrowski, W. (2023). The Twilight of Resource Nationalism: From Cyclicality to Singularity? Resources Policy, 83, 103599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103599
Overland, I. (2019). The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy: Debunking Four Emerging Myths. Energy Research & Social Science, 49, 36–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.10.018
Prime Minister of Vietnam. (2023). Decision No. 866/Q-TTg Approving the Planning for Exploration, Exploitation, Processing and Use of Minerals for the 2021-2030 Period, with a Vision to 2050.
Salim, H., Sahin, O., Elsawah, S., Turan, H., & Stewart, R. A. (2022). A Critical Review on Tackling Complex Rare Earth Supply Security Problem. Resources Policy, 77, 102697. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102697
Scholvin, S., & Wigell, M. (2018). Power Politics by Economic Means: Geoeconomics as an Analytical Approach and Foreign Policy Practice. Comparative Strategy, 37(1), 73–84. https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2018.1419729
Shen, Y., Moomy, R., & Eggert, R. G. (2020). China’s Public Policies toward Rare Earths, 1975–2018. Mineral Economics, 33, 127–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-019-00214-2
Sovacool, B. K., Ali, S. H., Bazilian, M., Radley, B., Nemery, B., Okatz, J., & Mulvaney, D. (2020). Sustainable Minerals and Metals for a Low-Carbon Future. Science, 367(6473), 30–33. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz6003
Tuoi Tre News. (2025). Vietnam Sets New Record for Exports in 2024, Runs Trade Surplus for 9 Straight Years.
Ufimtseva, A., Li, J., & Shapiro, D. M. (2024). US Critical Mineral Policies and Alliance Strategies in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry. Politics and Governance, 12, 8186. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.8186
U.S. Geological Survey. (2025). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025
U.S. Geological Survey. (2026). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2026
Viet Nam National Trade Repository. (n.d.). Trade Agreements.
Vietnam News. (2025). Electronics Industry Booms in 2024 with Record Export Turnover.
Vivoda, V. (2023). Friend-Shoring and Critical Minerals: Exploring the Role of the Minerals Security Partnership. Energy Research & Social Science, 100, 103085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103085
Wang, Y., Tzachor, A., Wang, H., & Chen, W.-Q. (2023). Critical Minerals for Sustainability: More Haste, Less Speed. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 198, 107181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107181
Wigell, M. (2016). Conceptualizing Regional Powers’ Geoeconomic Strategies: Neo-Imperialism, Neo-Mercantilism, Hegemony, and Liberal Institutionalism. Asia Europe Journal, 14(2), 135–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-015-0442-x
Woods, D. (2025). A Stackelberg Model of China’s Rare Earths Strategic Lead. Journal of Chinese Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09921-w
World Bank. (n.d.). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS): UN Comtrade.
World Bank. (2024). GDP (current US$) — Viet Nam.
Yin, R. K. (2018). Case Study Research and Applications: Design and Methods (6th ed.). SAGE Publications.
Zhiltsov, S. S., & Hoang, V. T. (2025). Vietnam’s Policy in the Field of Rare Earth Metals. The Russian Journal of Vietnamese Studies, 9(4), 32–46. https://doi.org/10.54631/VS.2025.94-639878
Zuo, Z., McLellan, B. C., Li, Y., Guo, H., & Cheng, J. (2022). Evolution and Insights into the Network and Pattern of the Rare Earths Trade from an Industry Chain Perspective. Resources Policy, 78, 102912. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102912
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Cinka Andili Rosa, Primadiana Yunita
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
