Intra-Island Inequality Dynamics and Growth Per Capita Output Paradox across Indonesian Island Clusters
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61194/ijss.v7i4.2728Keywords:
economic growth, regional inequality, spatial disparity, Williamson index, island clusters, IndonesiaAbstract
Indonesia’s RPJMN 2025-2029 set an 8% economic growth target, which raises the question of how growth is distributed across the archipelago. This study examines the spatial concentration of output, per capita output, and population density across seven island clusters (Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali-Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and Papua) and measures intra-island interprovincial disparity with the population-weighted Williamson Index. It applies a descriptive macro spatial design to secondary data from BPS Statistics Indonesia covering 2010-2024 (15 annual observations). Java accounted for 58.6% of aggregate GRDP in 2024 (57.3% in 2010) and had a population density of about 1.212 persons/km2. Mean intra-island disparity was highest in Kalimantan (0.800) and Java (0.827), moderate in Sumatra (0.454) and Bali-Nusa Tenggara (0.424), and lowest in Papua (0.209), Sulawesi (0.152), and Maluku (0.150). Disparity nevertheless rose sharply in Sulawesi and Maluku toward the end of the period, and the Papua series is confounded by the creation of new provinces in 2022. These patterns indicate that high aggregate output does not coincide with low internal disparity, which qualifies the conventional West-East narrative. The findings are intended to inform discussion of spatially differentiated regional development and fiscal policy, rather than to establish causal effect.
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