China's Debt Trap in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail Project
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61194/ijss.v5i1.1113Keywords:
China, Debt Trap, High-speed Rail, IndonesiaAbstract
Thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative, the rise of China has brought forth new sets of opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asia. Indonesia has become one of Southeast Asia countries that has close economic relations with China. The Indonesia-China High Speed Rail project, which connects Jakarta-Bandung with a 142 km long line, can be seen as one of the biggest projects between Indonesia and China. However, the project faces an overrun of around USD 2 billion. This paper aims to analyze the worst possibility that Indonesia will face, namely China's Debt Trap. This paper uses the literature study method. The results show that Indonesia has the potential to be caught in China's debt-trap if there are no comprehensive economic recovery efforts without relying on foreign loans. State income from loans and debts will only lead Indonesia under the influence of the lender country. This paper suggests that Indonesia needs to reconsider its decision to use APBN funds for a new capital project, namely Nusantara. This can make Indonesia trapped in a debt-trap due to excessive reduction in state assets.
References
Ahuja, T. (2022). China’s Debt Trap Diplomacy. SSRN.
A.N.I. (2022). Laos Finds Itself in China’s “Debt Trap”: Report.
Azmi, F., Mahyudin, E., Alam, G. N., Affandi, R. N., & Dermawan, W. (2022). Hidden Debt China ke Indonesia Masa Pandemi Covid-19: Tinjauan atas Perspektif Strukturalis dan Rational Choice Theory. Media Bina Ilmiah, 16(12).
Bank, W. (2022). Lao PDR: Economy Recovery Challenged by Debt and Rising Prices. www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/05/12/lao-pdr-economic-recovery-challenged-by-debt-and-rising-pr
Bellabona, P., & Spigarelli, F. (2007). Moving from Open Door to Go Global: China Goes on the World Stage. International Journal of Chinese Culture and Management, 1(1).
Chang, Z., Zheng, L., Yang, T., & Long, F. (2022). High-speed rail, new town development, and the spatial mismatch of land leases in China. Land Use Policy, 115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106014
Cheong, D. (2022). 2022/88 Chinese “Debt Trap” in Southeast Asia: What the Data Say. https://doi.org/2022/88https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2022-88-ch
China Policy. (2017). China Going Global: Between Ambition and Capacity.
Desfika, T. S. (2017). Indonesia Expects CDB Loan for Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway Project in March. https://jakartaglobe.id/context/indonesia-expects-cdb-loan-for-jakarta-bandung-high-speed-railway-project-in-march/
Dong, L., Du, R., Kahn, M., Ratti, C., & Zheng, S. (2021). “Ghost cities” versus boom towns: Do China’s high-speed rail new towns thrive? Regional Science and Urban Economics, 89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103682
Henke, I., Moyano, A., & Pagliara, F. (2023). Influence of high-speed rail on the decentralisation of events from big metropolitan areas to smaller intermediate cities. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101453
Hu, Z., Wu, G., Han, Y., & Niu, Y. (2023). Unraveling the dynamic changes of high-speed rail network with urban development: Evidence from China. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101380
Idrus, P. G. (2022). Negotiations on Indonesia’s China-funded Rail Project Cost Overruns Hit Snag. https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/cost-overruns-10132022150404.html
Jiang, J. (2022). Laos Faces Debt Crisis After Borrowing Billions From China.
Kitamura, Y., Yang, A. H., & Thung, J. L. (2022). When East Asia Meets Southeast Asia: Presence and Connectedness in Transformation Revisited. World Scientific.
Li, Z., Wang, Q., Cai, M., & Wong, W.-K. (2023). Impacts of high-speed rail on the industrial developments of non-central cities in China. Transport Policy, 134, 203–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.007
Liu, L., & Zhang, M. (2021). The impacts of high-speed rail on regional accessibility and spatial development-updated evidence from China’s mid-yangtze river city-cluster region. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084227
Nasution, R. (2017). Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway progresses by 79.9 percent: Jokowi. https://en.antaranews.com/news/210137/jakarta-bandung-high-speed-railway-progresses-by-799-percent-jokowi
O.E.C.D. (2018). China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Global Trade, Investment and Finance Landscape. OECD.
Reisen, H. (2007). Is China Actually Helping Improve Debt Sustainability. OECD Development Centre.
Sun, Y.-Y., & Lin, Z.-W. (2018). Move fast, travel slow: the influence of high-speed rail on tourism in Taiwan. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(3), 433–450. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2017.1359279
Suryadinata, L. (2018). Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail project poses big challenge for Jokowi.
The Jakarta Post. (2022). Analysis: Ahead of Xi’s Arrival, Cost Overrun Has Yet to be Settled.
Wang, H., Tian, Y., & Yin, H. (2021). Correlation Analysis of External Environment Risk Factors for High-Speed Railway Derailment Based on Unstructured Data. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6980617
Wang, K. (2022). Apakah China membebani negara-negara miskin dengan utang yang sulit dibayar? https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/dunia-59894361
Yang, Y., & Han, S. S. (2020). Wrestling between central and local: Planning and development of the Wuhan High-Speed Rail Station and its vicinity, China. Cities, 105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102828
Yang, Z., & Li, T. (2020). Does high-speed rail boost urban tourism economy in China? Current Issues in Tourism, 23(16), 1973–1989. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1696756
Yin, P., Pagliara, F., & Wilson, A. (2019). How does high-speed rail affect tourism? A case study of the Capital region of China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020472
Zhang, A., Pan, M., Liu, B., & Cao, X. (2023). Do high-speed rail (HSR) station and airport affect local government debt risk? Evidence from China. Transport Policy, 134, 41–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.02.004
Zhang, H., Chai, Y., Yang, X., & Zhao, W. (2022). High-Speed Rail and Urban Growth Disparity: Evidence from China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(13). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14138170
Zhu, X., Qian, T., & Wei, Y. (2020). Do high-speed railways accelerate urban land expansion in China? A study based on the multi-stage difference-in-differences model. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2020.100846



